Report for 2010

[japh]

Yelverdack of Lausanne, Switzerland, has produced an interesting report for 2010 and has posted it here http://forum.eurobilltracker.com/viewto ... 40#p834140" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The following is a translation of his report.

It is time to make a general report of EBT for 2010 and also by country.

Working hypothesis: Has EBT reached it's peak and is it already on a downward track.

During 2010 thye community, as a whole, had a fall of 4% in the number of notes entered and a fall of 3.2% in hits.The year 2010 was the second best both in terms of notes and of hits, behind 2009 but ahead of 2008.

It is therefore the first time we have had a change in direction towards the base.

Regarding the results by country they are very different one from each other.

Germany : Notes -2% hits+15%
Austria : Notes -17% Hits -18% !!!!!!
Belgium : Notes +2% Hits +12%
Spain : Notes - 6% Hits -5% (Note a drop of 15% in hits compared to 2008)
Finland : Notes -17% Hits +9%
France : Notes +7% Hits +9%
Greece : Notes -24% Hits +3% (Note a drop of 53% inn the number of notes compared to 2007)
Ireland : Notes +48% Hits +61%
Italy : Notes +10% Hits +24%
Netherlands : Notes -4% Hits -3%
Portugal : Notes -26% Hits -59%
Slovakia : Notes -17% bHits +5%
Slovenia : Notes +49% Hits +86%

One notes firstly that the evolution in notes can sometimes be the inverse to that of hits. That the powerhouses (Germany, The Netherlands and especially Finland) are all regressing while Austria and Belgium are still progressing.

In the middle ranks France has come out remarkably well and Italy even better without mentioning the explosion in Slovenia where a single user, Petek&co, entered 43% of the notes for his country. On the other hand Portugal collapsed completely while Spain suffered a small drop.

The smaller countries had mixed fortunes, Ireland had an incredible score, Slovakia disappointed in terms of notes but not in terms of hits and greece had a similar outcome to that of Portugal.

It is necessary to know what the influence of the cleaning girls has been in all this. We have seen a lot of users losing a lot of notes, but I don't know the total. What we know is that the drop in notes by the community is approximately 652,000 notes.

I have counted the number of notes deleted by the cleaning girls and announced by Phaseolus for the first part of 2010. The figure is a lot higher than I would have thought. From 01.01.2010 to 30.06.2010 he announced the deletion of 520,370 notes. I'm not going to count the second part of 2010, too long, but it is greater than the fall in notes honestly entered.

However in 2009 the cleaning girls were in place and work had already been done. As to the future I think that EBT will no longer have large progressions like those of 2004 t0 2008 and even 2009 (unless a densely populated country adopts the Euro) but that the number of notes won't drop further and that we will remain in the region of 14 to 16 million notes a year. This year 2011 will be decisive.

End of translation.

[melitikus]

aren't Cyprus and Malta also part of the eurozone?
the article says nothing about them

[Jes]

Well, IMHO there's nothing to worry about. Isn't there something called crisis? and that crisis has to bring to an end; 2011 will be a better period.

For what melitikus remarked...

aren't Cyprus and Malta also part of the eurozone?
the article says nothing about them

Well, I guess Cyprus and Malta were too small to consider its contribution, compared to other countries which have (for instance) 10 times their population or more. -Maybe. I must clarify that I don't want to undervalue any country in anycase!

[melitikus]

Well, IMHO there's nothing to worry about. Isn't there something called crisis? and that crisis has to bring to an end; 2011 will be a better period.

For what melitikus remarked...

aren't Cyprus and Malta also part of the eurozone?
the article says nothing about them

Well, I guess Cyprus and Malta were too small to consider its contribution, compared to other countries which have (for instance) 10 times their population or more. -Maybe. I must clarify that I don't want to undervalue any country in anycase!

one can calculate and compare the hit ratios and the increase in the input of banknotes irrelevant of the population size
moreover the small countries might still have the same participation as some of the big countries and even more

check the diffusion chart here
http://en.eurobilltracker.com/diffusion/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Malta has the same activity as Slovakia and is more active than Luxembourg and Greece

[Yelverdack]

I will finish the work this evening and add the missing countries.

[melitikus]

I will finish the work this evening and add the missing countries.

I noticed that Cypriots are not so active

[Yelverdack]

Here are the results of the missing countries and Switzerland because it's my country and the first one in the ranking which is not in the euro zone.

Malta : notes +11%, hits +241 % !!! What at progression !!!!
Luxembourg : notes +14%, hits +5 %
Cyprus : notes +110% (but -83% since 2008), hits -48 %, disappointing

Switzerland : notes +8%, hits +15%

In small countries, one or two users can have a significant influence on the national result.

[WinstonSmith]

Let me add that the correct data for Austria is:

Austria : Notes -17% Hits -18%

and not +17% like stated in the first message as of now.

[japh]

Let me add that the correct data for Austria is:

Austria : Notes -17% Hits -18%

My apologies. I have edited the post.

[Yelverdack]

Let me add that the correct data for Austria is:

Austria : Notes -17% Hits -18%

My apologies. I have edited the post.

No, it's my fault, I wrote it wrong in the french forum. Sorry

[Nerzhul]

Good analysis. Let's hope this trend will not continue in the next years. IMO there's still lots of opportunity for growth, but for that we need to intensify our work with public relations (ads, press, generating buzz) and do our best to keep users active.

2010 has also brought some very important features, e.g.:

- Support ticketing system
- New tools and responsibilities for the Support team
- API for 3rd party developers
- Regions

The first 2 have been especially important to me since they took a lot of administrative work off my back.

Also the support team got rid of requests which are easy to write but take hours to implement ("here's an Excel with 1035 comments which need to be edited..."). Users are getting MUCH quicker feedback through the support system. And EBT profits because this was one step closer to being actually independent from an admin.

Now I won't worry about being hit by a bus any longer so much, knowing that at least EBT will be able to function a while longer without me

The new API has been an important step towards transforming EBT into a more open platform. My goal is to open up the site as much as sensible so 3rd party developers can easily create their own applications and interfaces to the note database. The NIG tool is an excellent example for creative usage of the EBT data by a third party.

Now there's an iPhone app and hopefully we'll see lots more projects with cool ideas!

[sen-chuan]

Good analysis. Let's hope this trend will not continue in the next years. IMO there's still lots of opportunity for growth, but for that we need to intensify our work with public relations (ads, press, generating buzz) and do our best to keep users active.

...

My opinion regarding ads, press, and so on: Communication Group was created in 2008 and till now it has the hands tied. It has no tools at its disposition to create, translate and send newsletters, an important goal to keep users active, as we talked at the last Meeting in Florence.

Public relations depend on single country, so it would be nice to have a member of each nation but it is not possible at all.

In this page you can see the worst growth of new users in 8 years.
And how many are still active?

It is a pity that no one above can not consider this Group a resource for EBT image.

[doiknow]

Ok as I make 'the List' I can add a few numbers:

Notes that have been officially cleaned in 2010: 843.893
NB: Keep in mind this number may be unsure due to inaccurate numbering in the forum. Finally we don't know anythinf on the users who voluntary confessed faked notes. So let's say we have a 5% error within this notes, resulting in about 843.800 notes being cleaned at least.

We know the number of notes being entered decreased by 652k from 2009 to 2010. However, 843k notes have been deleted. As the old dirt should have been deleted in 2009 I assume these 843k notes were all entered in 2010 (which might be wrong) resulting in 191k notes of those being deleted having been compensated. Or in other words: The EBT community did enter 191k notes more than in 2009 which is a little increase.


Let's now have a look at the top 3 faking countries. As we can see those countries did fake the vast majority of all notes (65.69%).
Notes cleaned by country, percentage of total cleaned notes:
pt = 276474 = 32.72%
de = 193446 = 22.89%
be = 85167 = 10.08%

at = 67745 = 8.01%
si = 45125 = 5.34%
it = 38330 = 4.53%
nl = 24545 = 2.9%
fi = 22464 = 2.65%
fr = 19572 = 2.31%
es = 11257 = 1.33%
sk = 6167 = 0.72%
ei = 2085 = 0.24%
gr = 1992 = 0.23%
mt = 42 = 0%
cy = 6 = 0%

If the number of notes being cleaned is equal to the decrease in notes by that country - the users of that country did enter their notes as usual - and thus have note entered less notes than usual. However, if the number of cleaned notes is larger than the loss, they entered more notes - and the same blahblah for less notes

Still assuming all notes that have been cleaned were entered in 2010 too, we come to the following numbers:
Country / Increase (total) / Fake loss (total) / Sum (total)
Portugal / -239.926 / -276.474 / +36.548
Germany/ -92.135 / -193.446 / +101.311
Belgium/ +33.786/ -85.167 / +118.953

Conclusion:
In the top 3 faking countries the net number of notes did increase by about 40k to 100k. All notes that were entered less than 2009 can be compensated by the cleaned notes.

[Phaseolus]

NB: Keep in mind this number may be unsure due to inaccurate numbering in the forum. Finally we don't know anythinf on the users who voluntary confessed faked notes. So let's say we have a 5% error within this notes, resulting in about 843.800 notes being cleaned at least.

Voluntary confessions are EXTREMELY limited...

It seems that fakers prefer to go on faking !

And loose everything !

[Lajlaj]

[quote="Jes"]Well, IMHO there's nothing to worry about. Isn't there something called crisis? and that crisis has to bring to an end; 2011 will be a better period.

[quote="sen-chuan"][quote="Nerzhul"]Good analysis. Let's hope this trend will not continue in the next years. 1

Speaking of ( relative ) success: why was December 2010, with 1382K banknotes, removed from the all time best months list?