Brexit?

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claudio vda
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Brexit?

Postby claudio vda » Sat Jun 11, 2016 11:26 am

Next 23th of June UK citizens will vote in order to leave or not the European Union.

It's very hard to make previsions about the future, but let's imagine that UK will actually leave European Union... what is going to happen?

The article 50 of the Lisbon treaty states that the leaving member and EU have two years in order to reach a mutual agreement, after that time the agreement does not need to be mutual any more, so EU can impose really hard conditions to UK.
Several British columnists say that this will never happen because UK is an important partner for Continental Europe and hard conditions will frustrate the market. On the other hand, many European governments have political interest to punish a leaving country in order to stop the Euroskeptiks parties in their home countries (e.g. on 2017 there will be general elections in France and Germany); on those basis, they will be tempted to kick UK out of the common market, in order to finger it as what would happen if Euroskeptiks parties will win everywhere.

Personally, I think that UK voters will choose to remain in the EU... but maybe in a couple of weeks I will be contradicted by the facts.

What do you think?
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Re: Brexit?

Postby negative » Sat Jun 11, 2016 12:08 pm

I want to believe EU will remain

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Re: Brexit?

Postby mico » Sun Jun 12, 2016 11:56 pm

i'd like the same results of the previous referendum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_ ... ndum,_2014
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Re: Brexit?

Postby ART » Tue Jun 14, 2016 9:06 pm

Polls give conflicting answers: we will not know anything until 23th.

The brexit is not convenient to anyone, for them for reasons easy to understand for us because this event would create an historic opportunity for Europhobic block (including the various nationalists and neo-Nazis parties which they have increased anywhere consents) to try to definitively crush the European integration process.

I do not think the shock of brexit could be exploited for serious progress of European unity, not with the chief of governments who we have currently at the head of the main states and with this wave of extremism caused by the economic crisis and rising of extra-EU immigration, so it's better for everyone if they stay in the EU.
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Re: Brexit?

Postby Raumi » Wed Jun 15, 2016 11:53 pm

I am 100 % with général de Gaulle. The UE will be better without the UK. Indeed, since they joined, they've been a stick in our wheels, blocking every attempt to integrate Europe into something bigger. They said NO to the Euro, NO to Schengen, NO to the idea of an European Army... and now they even want a special status which may let them choose what European Law applies or not in their island.
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Re: Brexit?

Postby ART » Thu Jun 16, 2016 7:13 pm

The problem with this reasoning is that it made sense when we were in a few, certainly not now that we are 28 and in a period of discouragement and rise of anti-European extremism. Brexit would be a blow for us, because it would give a big help those who want to smash the whole integration process. If we want to move forward in earnest deepening the level of European unity we can do it with the states that agree it, leaving behind those who do not want to.
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Re: Brexit?

Postby Raumi » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:48 pm

Still too early to know, but it looks like #Bremain has won the referendum.
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Re: Brexit?

Postby avij » Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:56 am

In fact, looks like the "exit" side won. Interesting times ahead..
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Re: Brexit?

Postby Raumi » Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:46 am

Wow! I didn't really expect it! 8O 8O
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Re: Brexit?

Postby mico » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:12 pm

how old and young people voted in the Brexit referendum :arrow: http://www.joe.ie/news/difference-old-y ... ays/550477
and brexit vote analysis :arrow: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... ed-old-an/
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Re: Brexit?

Postby claudio vda » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:49 pm

UK voted for leaving.

In this moment the market situation is a little bit... ehm... stormy, but this is quite normal: every time a bird sings, markets sink, no wonder that after the Brexit poll they are deeply sinking.
What it is interesting it what will happen in the next weeks. In the moment that UK will official notify its will to leave, it will become a sort of colony of EU: it will be conditioned by EU treaties and laws, but it will not be able to change them, this waiting for the definitive farewell in a couple of years.
Today Merkel said the Germany would like to remove the special economical treatment that UK received in February, but of course UK will not be allowed to negotiate and it will be obliged to obey, hoping that the EU council will be kind with them. After what happened with Greece, I really doubt that they will be kind.
In the next weeks, UK will be obliged to agree to the new decisions of the EU council, without being able to enter in the decisions, this means they would try to leave as soon as possible; during this while, we should find a solution about all the UK citizens living in EU and vice-versa...

...I would expect a bureaucratic blockage :roll:

By the way, it seems that Scottish didn't like the idea of leaving: there is the possibility that in a couple of years United Kingdom will not be united any more :?
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Re: Brexit?

Postby Stevo » Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:07 am

I am sorry to see the UK vote to leave the EU, but that's democracy. If that's what the majority of voters in the UK want; it's their country, so it's their choice. The truth is, the UK was only one foot in when it came to Europe anyway, choosing some bits and not accepting others (like the single currency) so they might as well not be in it really.

The situation we have here in Ireland will be interesting though, as we share a land border with the UK. So we'll have to see how that all unfolds...

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Re: Brexit?

Postby claudio vda » Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:37 am

After markets will rest a little bit down, we could take advantage of Brexit in order to realize the Federal Europe that we are procrastinating since more or less half century.
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Re: Brexit?

Postby ART » Sat Jun 25, 2016 8:37 pm

claudio vda wrote:After markets will rest a little bit down, we could take advantage of Brexit in order to realize the Federal Europe that we are procrastinating since more or less half century.


I hope it is so, but we will probably have to face the problem of the referenda that nationalists/neo-fascist parties across the EU are beginning to demand taking advantage of Brexit.

Stevo wrote:The situation we have here in Ireland will be interesting though, as we share a land border with the UK.


Same problem of Cyprus...

claudio vda wrote:By the way, it seems that Scottish didn't like the idea of leaving: there is the possibility that in a couple of years United Kingdom will not be united any more :?


I think highly probable now, and feel similar speeches even also in Northern Ireland.
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Re: Brexit?

Postby dsmithgt2 » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:30 pm

Pound to euro exchange rates are so bad right about now. Currently sits at €1.11 for a pound and most travel shops are offering €1.04 at the moment. Going back to Ireland next week and there's almost no point in changing pounds over to euro. In hindsight I should have kept some money in my Irish euro account before I moved back to Edinburgh in September :oops: :oops:


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