Long term predictions - EBT stats 01-01-2010

[coastal]

What do you think are the long term possibilities of EBT, let's say the end of the decade? Can the spectacular growth of the last few months be sustained or will we soon run out of potential new users and level off? Or will there be a massive database problem before then and all data is lost?
Obviously there will be quite a few new Euro countries before then (maybe even the UK ) & internet use will have grown a lot. Also some new technology will probably make entering notes when you're on the move much easier. (Or the notes will all be chipped and make EBT obsolete )
And will the hit rate be so high that it gets boring for the Finnish?

So just for fun , make your predictions for the following categories on 01-01-2010. If this thread hasn't been deleted by then , we can see who was closest

Number of users (currently c. 36.000)
Notes entered (3.700.000)
Interesting hits (4.000)
Number of notes entered by top user (100.000)
Average number of notes entered per day (11.000)
Greatest chain of hits for one note (3)

Here are my predictions:
Number of users 150.000
Notes 50.000.000
Interesting hits 100.000
Notes for top user 320.000
Notes per day 35.000
Chain 7

So what am I? An optimist or a pessimist?

[aron]

Here are my predictions:
Number of users 96.000
Notes 39.800.000
Interesting hits 40.000
Notes for top user 340.000
Notes per day 24.000
Chain 9

I believe you're an optimist!

[Elmo]

My predictions:
Number of users: 2.560.000
Number of bills: 5.000.000.000
Interesting hits: 50.000.000
Bills for top user: 1.250.000 (ans! )
Bills per day: 860.000
Chain: 6

You are such pessimists! Long live the exponential growth!

[androl]

Here are my predictions:
Number of users 96.000
Notes 39.800.000
Interesting hits 40.000

note: if we have 10 times the notes, we have about 100 times the hits, so 40.000 would be a bit too few.

[aron]

Here are my predictions:
Number of users 96.000
Notes 39.800.000
Interesting hits 40.000

note: if we have 10 times the notes, we have about 100 times the hits, so 40.000 would be a bit too few.

I don't think soo! The question is about 'interesting' hits and I don't believe the average in 2010 will be on the same rate as it is now! So 10 times the notes doesn't guarentee 100 times the 'interesting' hits!
...and BTW its only a prediction!

[Fons]

Here are my predictions:
Number of users 111.000
Notes 60.000.000
Interesting hits 90.000
Notes for top user 1.000.000
Notes per day 50.000
Chain 10

[androl]

I don't think soo! The question is about 'interesting' hits and I don't believe the average in 2010 will be on the same rate as it is now! So 10 times the notes doesn't guarentee 100 times the 'interesting' hits!
...and BTW its only a prediction!

Of course I mean the interesting hits. (Only) they follow mathematical estimations. Of course it's only a prediction, but if the numbers of notes and hits don't "match", they are two different predictions.

so this is my prediction:

Number of users: 70.000
Notes entered: 10.000.000
Interesting hits: 25.000
Number of notes entered by top user: 250.000
Average number of notes entered per day: 15.000
Greatest chain of hits for one note: 3 or 4

[Viperazzi]

Number of users 220 000
Notes 36 000 000
Interesting hits 45 000
Notes for top user 1 100 000
Notes per day 47 000
Greatest interesting hit Quadruple

If Sweden joins the EMU, we will have multiple international triples between Finland and Sweden. I'd really like them to join. Swedes could enter a lot of notes like us. And we'd get tons of hits!

[Kasper]

Elmo might be right by suggesting that there might be an exponential growth.

During the last year I've been checking these statistics, and I've figured out that the number of bills and the number of interesting hits increase exponentially. However, the number of users and the average number of bills per day seem to increase much slower. Unfortunately it is hard to predict the number of bills for the top user and the longest chain, since these numbers are greatly influenced by individual bills and people. My guess (hopefully I did not make any mistakes):

Number of users: 155.000
Number of notes: 1.575.000.000
Number of interesting hits: 363.000.000
Number of bills for top user: 3.000.000
Average number of bills per day: 600.000
Chain: 6

These numbers are probably overoptimistic: an extrapolation is always risky. Anyways, it is fun speculating like this!

[eddydevries]

Because I haven't seen this topic earlier, I put my prediction today (it's going to be over three years, so it's not for sure yet).

Here are my predictions:
Number of users 130.000
Notes entered 40.000.000
Interesting hits 130.000
Number of notes entered by top user 500.000
Average number of notes entered per day 38.000
Greatest chain of hits for one note 6

[DrGreenTom]

Number of users 220 000
Notes 36 000 000
Interesting hits 45 000
Notes for top user 1 100 000
Notes per day 47 000
Greatest interesting hit Quadruple

you do realise there's already a quintuple hit right now ?

[eddydevries]

That prediction was from 2004.

[Nivram]

Number of users 220 000
Greatest interesting hit Quadruple

you do realise there's already a quintuple hit right now ?

yeah, but (s)he wrote it 2 years ago...

[lazza]

Is eddydevries our new topic digger...?

Anyway, my predictions are:

Number of users 150,000
Notes entered 125,000,000
Interesting hits 500,000
Number of notes entered by top user 650,000
Average number of notes entered per day 75,000
Greatest chain of hits for one note 8

[JP Simões]

Here goes nothing:

Number of users: 300.000
Notes entered: 100.000.000
Interesting hits: 250.000
Number of notes entered by top user: 1.500.000 (ans?)
Average number of notes entered per day: 66.000
Greatest chain of interesting hits for one note: 7