Soros Says He's Selling the Dollar

John S · Post by **John S** » Fri May 23, 2003 6:46 am

Soros Says He's Selling the Dollar

21.05.2003 [12:28]

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Billionaire investor George Soros, in an interview with cable television station CNBC on Tuesday, said he was selling the dollar against most major currencies.

In the wide-ranging interview in which he assailed the Bush administration's policies, Soros said he was buying the euro and the currencies of Australia, Canada and New Zealand against the dollar, as well as gold. The euro briefly broke above $1.17 following his comments before retreating.

"I have to disclose that I now have a short position against the dollar because I listen to what the Secretary of the Treasury is telling me," Soros said in the interview. He referred to recent remarks made by U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow that signaled a shift away from a strong dollar policy.

Soros was sharply critical of Snow's policy shift, branding it a "mistake," and labeling it a wrongheaded attempt to stimulate the U.S. economy at the expense of other economies.

"It's a beggar-thy-neighbor policy," he said. "I think (Snow) was somewhat irresponsible by talking down the dollar."

Soros was dubbed "The Man who broke the Bank of England" for his role in amassing bets that the pound would fall in 1992 -- thus facilitating Britain's ejection from Europe's exchange rate mechanism that year.

Though analysts say Soros' influence in markets has waned, many are reluctant to fight the trend that has seen the dollar fall sharply against major currencies.

With the dollar already under pressure, traders sent the euro above $1.17 , a fraction of a cent from Monday's four year high at $1.1738 -- a hair below the single currency's launch price. Gold, meanwhile, set a three-month high at $370 an ounce.

The Canadian dollar held a six-year high against its U.S. counterpart, trading near C$1.3476 , or 74.21 U.S. cents.

Источник: Reuters

K3lvin · Post by **K3lvin** » Fri May 23, 2003 12:28 pm

Euro exeeded it's 1999 launch value:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2931726.stm

I hope it's not going to rise much more. It might cause deflation in some countries like Finland. And it's definitely bad for exporting since most goods are priced in dollars.

Oil's cheap now, though.

wouter · Post by **wouter** » Fri May 23, 2003 12:51 pm

K3lvin wrote: I hope it's not going to rise much more. It might cause deflation in some countries like Finland. And it's definitely bad for exporting since most goods are priced in dollars.

You are right about that! Dutch companies like Phillips, shell and unilever, have great interests in America, and those bring in a lot less money when the Dollar is that low.

Olivier · Post by **Olivier** » Sat May 24, 2003 6:54 pm

K3lvin wrote:Euro exeeded it's 1999 launch value:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2931726.stm

I hope it's not going to rise much more. It might cause deflation in some countries like Finland. And it's definitely bad for exporting since most goods are priced in dollars.

Oil's cheap now, though.

We should price our goods in euros...

Olivier · Post by **Olivier** » Sat May 24, 2003 6:57 pm

wouter wrote: You are right about that! Dutch companies like Phillips, shell and unilever, have great interests in America, and those bring in a lot less money when the Dollar is that low.

Why Phillips can't sell its products in euros?

Skylimit · Post by **Skylimit** » Sat May 24, 2003 7:43 pm

The US has chosen for a "Beggar thy neighbour policy" which again is showing how selfish these guys are ... In a period where the world is struggling with the economy, the largest economy has announced it is going to let slide their currency ...

That way, they will recover, on the expense of the rest of the world.

They can only do this because the dollar is still the international currency in which they buy everything ...

If oil were priced in €, they are dead with this kind of attitude

Olivier · Post by **Olivier** » Sun May 25, 2003 1:02 pm

Skylimit wrote: If oil were priced in €, they are dead with this kind of attitude

Well, it's high time Europe asks officially the Oil producers to buy oil in euros... after all, there are more people using euros than the US dollar

eurobillsandcoins · Post by **eurobillsandcoins** » Sun May 25, 2003 2:11 pm

The dollar just slides and slides, Yesterday we sold U.S. banknotes at 0.85€ at closing and we bought at 0.76€.The U.S.$ is not requested much anymore.

Gauss · Post by **Gauss** » Tue May 27, 2003 3:19 pm

But in the mean time, the falling exchange rate for dollars is reason to worry about - Europe might import deflation which is pure poison for the economy. I'm sure John S will post some articles about it at some time.

Olivier · Post by **Olivier** » Sun Jun 08, 2003 5:47 am

Gauss wrote:But in the mean time, the falling exchange rate for dollars is reason to worry about - Europe might import deflation which is pure poison for the economy. I'm sure John S will post some articles about it at some time.

What is deflation?

Skylimit · Post by **Skylimit** » Sun Jun 08, 2003 8:06 am

Olivier wrote: What is deflation?

Deflation is the opposite of inflation, which means that average product prices are falling. It is generally accepted that an inflation of 1% to 2%
is a healty level for the economy.

Deflation means that
1) consumers do not spend money because they expect goods to become cheaper
2) house owners suffer because the value of the property drops while the mortgage stays the same

etc...

It can turn out to be a deflatory spiral downwards, which could cause a crisis like in 1929, although we do not yet have all ingredients for that

Olivier · Post by **Olivier** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:26 am

Skylimit wrote:
Olivier wrote: What is deflation?
Deflation is the opposite of inflation, which means that average product prices are falling. It is generally accepted that an inflation of 1% to 2%
is a healty level for the economy.

Deflation means that
1) consumers do not spend money because they expect goods to become cheaper
2) house owners suffer because the value of the property drops while the mortgage stays the same

etc...

It can turn out to be a deflatory spiral downwards, which could cause a crisis like in 1929, although we do not yet have all ingredients for that

Is it the case in Japan? What about the USA with a interest rate close to 0% ?

Skylimit · Post by **Skylimit** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:59 am

Japan is a recent example ... You can see how hard that hits
US is in real danger, and so is Europe (imported deflation)
If there is deflation in the whole world it would be catastrophic.

Olivier · Post by **Olivier** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 5:39 pm

Skylimit wrote:Japan is a recent example ... You can see how hard that hits
US is in real danger, and so is Europe (imported deflation)
If there is deflation in the whole world it would be catastrophic.

What are the causes of deflation?

Donald · Post by **Donald** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 6:51 pm

Olivier wrote:What are the causes of deflation?

Here in Germany it is general uncertainty. People still believe that the prices increased with the Euro, so they wait for things to normalize and don't spend money. At the same time the discounters advertize aggressively. So the people only buy at extreme low prices or not at all.
The government must reveal now that our social systems work according to chain letters principles. There is less money available and the benefits get downsized. Presently there is a discussion that people probably will have to pay 100% of the dental fraction of the health insurance. Normally the employers pay 50% of all health insurance. So people have to pay some extra Euro for dental insurance and they also will have to contribute some money to all medical treatments they get. This is just one example of the things that make people feel uncertain.
There is also price erosion for some products (e.g. everything you can get from countries like China). The availability of cheap imported goods pushes the prices down and it forces the home producers to rationalize, which means that jobs get uncertain. This reduces the consumers' tendency to buy again. The only way to sell is to reduce prices and this is deflation.
Deflation indicates that an economy is worth less than you have assumed when you compare it against the world market.