The countdown to 2027/11/1 (or sooner); who will be the next ECB president?

[Montgomery Burns]

It's that time again, in which we speculate about the future signature (which we would see in 2028, in the current term calendar) on our beloved bills.

First, addressing the "or sooner" portion of the thread title:

• an FT article from February 18 speaks of pressure from Paris and Berlin to Pres. Lagarde to step down early
  
  https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... ear-report
  
  François Villeroy de Galhau mentioned, as he recently announced his departure from the Bank of France will happen in June

• a majority in a Bloomberg survey of analysts expect it to happen
  
  https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/intern ... b-job-knot
  
  names mentioned there are Klaas Knot and Pablo Hernández de Cos

• President Lagarde remains unfazed, and attempted to quash the rumors the very next day (Feb. 19) in a WSJ interview
  
  https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/intern ... -tells-wsj

A Reuters commentary from March 17 provides a few more leads and names (other than the ones already mentioned; Luis de Guindos), and favors Joachim Nagel.

[Montgomery Burns]

So after a somewhat buzz-filled Feb-Mar, things have quieted down a bit...

I saw a brief note somewhere mentioning Kristalina Georgieva as a good, fail-safe candidate, should all other options prove impossible (somewhat like Lagarde was)... I actually think Georgieva is not a fail-safe, it's not at all likely to see an IMF Managing Director stepping down from the role two years early.

Also echoing Lagarde is Nadia Calviño who, when asked about the role, replied with "No, no, no, no. I am absolutely proud, committed, happy to ​be at the helm of the European Investment Bank." A very similar response - almost word for word - was given by Lagarde in early 2019...

https://www.reuters.com/business/financ ... 026-06-16/

Other than Calviño, the article mentions names previously mentioned and adds Isabel Schnabel.

[lmviterbo]

Here I present a compelling case predicting the next President of the ECB.

In common-law terminology, this exact sequence outlines the standard lifecycle of a judicial proceeding:

President	Abbreviation	Legal Compound Term	Procedural Role
Wim Duisenberg	WD	Witness Deposition	Discovery & evidence gathering
Jean-Claude Trichet	JT	Jury Trial	Adjudication phase
Mario Draghi	MD	Motion for Dismissal	Defense argument / trial motion
Christine Lagarde	CL	Common Law (or Case Law)	Precedent and statutory basis

What follows? To conclude the court docket after establishing precedent, the case reaches its final disposition, most commonly via a public hearing or the formal plea entry nolo contendere.


So here are my predictions for the next President of the ECB. Any of them may happen:

Pablo Hernández de Cos	PH	Public Hearing	Most common final disposition in court
Nadia Calviño	NC	Nolo Contendere	A no contest plea, with no admission of guilt

Disclaimer: I know next to nothing about law and the justice system. Gemini suggested all these, and if anything is wrong, I will just plead the 5th or whatever blames it on Gemini. I know my rights.

[Montgomery Burns]

Oh wow, that is... something! We shall see.

[ART]

Kristalina Georgieva

Senza titolo.png (3.48 KiB) Viewed 203 times

[Montgomery Burns]

Nice and scribble-y... but not very likely (on our bills in the future).

[Montgomery Burns]

I actually think Georgieva is not a fail-safe, it's not at all likely to see an IMF Managing Director stepping down from the role two years early.

I must embarrassingly admit that I was completely wrong here: President Lagarde left the IMF leadership halfway through her second term. So, it's a possibility. The article highlighted there provides further speculation as to why Lagarde could consider an early exit, mentions well established "candidates" for the job and adds one new one: Fabio Panetta.

Interestingly, a Reuters report citing the Handelsblatt newspaper from literally the last hour as I type this claims Isabel Schnabel is in advanced talks with the IMF to take a senior role over there, which would force her to leave her current ECB post early and, effectively, end her bid for the top post.