History in the making: A giant step towards a Federal Europ

[Olivier]

I agree, but at the same time we would not have got internal fights inside Europe. France + Germany + Belgium... / GB + Spain + Portugal...

At least it's far better than a common European government which is supporting the USA policy...

Definitly... but on the other hand, it would be hard for a "real democratic, elected" european gouvernment to support the US policy with the 80% no-war Europeans

On the top of that, the structure of today's EU system is totally incompenent for a (con)federation. It's horribly slow and ineffective, far too bureaucratic. On the other hand, it's difficult to make it operative without reducing democracy and control against bribing.

I agree with you!
I don't want a president named by his pears. I wish him/her to be elected.

Again one reason why EU should get rid of NATO. Times have changed since the days when NATO was founded. I think this is not really what the old member countries wanted when they joined to the organisation.

True, but I don't think countries like Denmark, Great Britain, Spain... will agree to get rid of NATO for a european independant army.

The USA can't afford of ruining all the alliances, ruining the UN...

USA is worried about UN only when it suits their needs. You can see USA has totally paralysed UN.

Yes, but they now need a kind of legitimacy, since the US soldiers get bullets in south of Irak. Legitimacy means also... mon€y.

It's an interesting article. Some economy gurus counted 25 years time for USA until their economy collapses to an economical crisis. They reduced it to 20 years when Bush Jr became president elected...

I wonder what will happen. In my opinion the collapse will be soon, and as brutal as the fall of the Berlin Wall.

The bad side is the problem in today's world economy is that everything effects on everything. If, or when, USA collapses it effects everywhere in the world. Let's hope China, Russia and India will be strong factors in world economy by then because otherwise we would be alone as the EU internal demand would not be high enough to satisfy the internal supply.

China and Russia are aware of that. The links are getting stronger between these 4 poles.
About the internal demand, let's not forget that there are 280 millions of Americans, and soon 450 millions of Europeans... + a huge russian market close of Europe.
USA are no more vital for the European economy. Moreover of the europeans are payed in dollars...

On the other hand, also German economy is in a bad shape. The public sector deficit is too high and for example cities of Hamburg and Berlin have nearly bankrupted. This is a very bad thing as Germany is the economy locomotive of Europe. I don't remember exactly how big role the German gross national product has in EU but I think it's something like 40%...

This shows, according to me, that our countries are too small to face the international market, even Germany. The European Union could create a new era of prosperity with a european New Deal. The european commission has made some proposals that way. It could be great for the 10 new countries to get brand new roads, airports, motorways, bridges... It would decrease the unemployment.
The money for this would be the money the international investors put in the eurozone since it's better for them to invest here than in the USA.

The euro, its stability and strength would allow a Keynesian policy. The european market is only the half of the chinese market! Let's go! A european (elected) government would not spend its time in discussions on the majority/unanimity on the size of bananas... but would act now!

[Olivier]

Belgium can't tell them alone!
The USA put the pressure on a country, one by one, like a bad guy who bash the weak pupils on a schoolground.
Today the pressure is on Belgium. Tomorrow will be the turn of Syria, Iran, Turkey, France, Germany or Canada...

I think they can. What would Americans do in practice? They would not send their marines to take over the Belgian parliament house. They can't do anything else but accept the Belgian government and be happy of it or just moan about it.

Belgians can oppose the USA if the rest of Europe is on their side. If GB, Spain, Italy, Denmark.. agree to move out of Bruxelles because the USA ask for it, Belgium can't resist.
Before Bruxelles, NATO hedquarters were... in Paris.

I wish the European Union asks the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank move to Europe, because the EU has got the majority of the votes a few years ago.
Idem for the UN. The USA don't respect the UN rules... let's move back to Geneva or La Haye!

EU should dump NATO and form its own alliance. Then we could decide if we want to help USA or leave them to solve their self-inflicted problems.

It's not possible with the Europe we have today and won't be possible untill Europe has not become (con)federal.

I think it is possible. We simply just extend the co-operation to the defence. There is a problem though... the new members are much more likely to adopt the American point of view.

They are because there is no european defence yet. The euro exists, they want to join. If the army existed, they would either.

European countries, not only EU but also Russia, are too worried about hurting the feelings of USA when Bush does something really bully. USA can always count on the fact that other countries first tell to USA they dislike their policy and after the crisis they are ready to do anything to improve their relationships to USA.

Just see what has happened after the Iraqi war. Other countries are ready to give USA the priviledge to break against human rights in UN operations. It's amazing and very sad to see that for so many European countries friendship with USA is more important than human rights. The European model of equal human rights and punishment for crimes is dead.

That's why I told at the beginning of this thread that it's time for Europe to get a real government and get rid of with the past, with the Nations system...

I live in a federal system, and I see that living in the Canadian federation does not prevent me from living in a strong Quebec. I live in french, I live with the local system of welfare, education... but for the important things such as defence, money, Quebec is stronger inside the Canadian federation. It's exactly the same for Europe. Finland would stay Finland, but Finns could more keep choosing which world they want to live in, inside a federal Europe.

[John S]

I think the reason why Americans wanted to take over Iraq is the world's second biggest oil resources. Saudi Arabia has the biggest resources but it starts to be very unstable politically. Americans realised that after the terrorist attack in New York; most of the hi-jackers were Saudi Arabian. The royal family, Al Saudi's, is very unfamous nowadays. If there started some riots in Saudi Arabia and Iraq was still in trade blockeade, everyone can imagine what would have happened to the oil price then...

I guess the following country on the list would not be Iran but Syria.

Also because Iraq's Saddam Hussein switched his oil currency to euros from dollars, threathening dollar hegemony. Watch and see that the nations on the top of the list for "regime change" are those who have shed their dollars for euros.

Iran has converted over half of its foreign currency reserve to euros. Also, expect Venuzuela to suffer the same fate as Iraq, if the US doesn't collapse first.

[Olivier]

John, I have thought about you this afternoon. There is an interesting article in Le Mone about this. The United Nations are a bit afraid by the collapse of the US$ which could have several effects:

- help the exports out of the USA. But as you said, the USA don't export much. Moreover, they don't produce enoigh products for their own consumption. So, they will probably import as much as now, but it would cost more. -> they will import inflation.

- the situation of the US economy is closer and closer of the collapse, because lower interest rates -> lack of confidence for the investors, at a time the USA need more and more money to pay the loan of their debt and deficits.
--> we are closer anf bankrupt.

- The poor countries which sell their goods in dollars will loose money if they keep the prices unchanged. The UN thinks mostly about the Thirld world, the producers of cofee, cacao, etc...
-> Europe can be protected if it starts to use less the dollar in its trade.
The fall of the dollar could end these little producer to charge their goods in another currency... the euro.


All you said in this thread seams to happen sooner than expected!