How many notes does it take to get a hit?

[Antti]

I'm still waiting for my first hit. (I only have 150 notes, so it doesn't surprise anyone) And I'd be interested to know how many notes it takes to get a hit. They say chances for a hit are quite small. I don't know how small, so I decided to ask you, though most people here don't have a hit, but some people do, some even more than one, I think. It's a common dream of all EBT:ers, getting a hit, and so I wanted to find out approx. how many notes I still need.

[micro]

With 14545 million notes produced throughout Europe (and production probably continues), the amount of notes entered into EBT (358857) is only 0.00247 %:

358857 / 14545000000 * 100 = 0.00247 %
358857 notes are registered, 14544641143 are not. Or for every single note registered in EBT there is another 40530 notes circulating which are not (yet) registered.

So if I want to have a hit in EBT I should have to enter about 40530 notes.

But in reality there seem to be more hits: With 358857 notes registered in EBT and 104 hits until now there was a hit for every 3450 notes entered:

358857 / 104 = 3450.5

(correct me if I'm wrong somewhere)

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I edited this posting to correct the percentage above from 0.0000247 % to 0.00247 %

[Skylimit]

For every hit there are 2 users ...
So if there was a hit for every 3500 notes, then you need to enter 1750 notes for a hit ...

Seems a lot. I though it was around 1000

Still there is something not right calculating this way. Because the number of notes grows every day, and question could be

*) what are the odds I score a hit if I enter x notes every day, and with the database growing at pace y, during period z, starting today with p notes entered and q notes in the database.

I mean, bills entered in januari are still floating around somewhere, and if it takes x time on average to pop up again, the odds go up every day this happens. Problem : black hole countries like Spain & Italy, and also France with many inhabitants and few EBT'ers. Other problem : notes taken out of circulation, and the many new notes printed. Add to this, the distribution model of banknotes and I think you will get a very complex answer to a simple question.

[Antti]

It never came to my mind that this could be answered mathematically

[Tiger]

I got my first (and until now my only) hit when I had inserted 1071 notes.
The note that was registered again was my 848th note.

I think you could calculate this mathematicaly, but like Skylimit already said, it's a VERY complex formule.

[Wouter1]

I guess I was lucky >>> I got mine with 316 notes entered.
The guy who entered the note never came back. So i think it was a note with www.eurobilltracker.com written on it: I do that most of the time.

[micro]

Skylimit, you are probably right: All hit notes appear twice in the database, so the actual number of entries that produced hits is 208 instead of 104, so there was a hit every 1725 notes. I just wonder why the number of 1725 is so much smaller than the theoretical 40530.

[Skylimit]

I just wonder why the number of 1725 is so much smaller than the theoretical 40530.

Some countries (like my own) have lots of EBT'ers. My bills circulating in Belgium have a much higher probability of getting hit. If it enters France, I consider it lost... If it enters Holland or Germany, still good chance.

It must have something to do with some areas where probability is much higher (or they can also be fake, or sociagrammed, woobeled or Thomassed ...) or they float around with the url on it -> how many of the 104 hits are urlled ?

[Antti]

My bills circulating in Belgium have a much higher probability of getting hit.

In fact, in Belgium the probability is the highest, assuming that notes don't travel to other countries. Chances are second highest in Finland, third in NL, fourth in Germany, fifth in Italy, sixth in Ireland, seventh in Potugal, eighth in Greece, nineth in Austria, tenth inFrance and eleventh in Spain.
Or that's what I calculated. It can be miscalculated or misthought(if you know what I mean), but I calculated that just for fun and it can't be totally wrong.

[wouter]

they rather legit to me
but maybe we all should move to monaco or san marino and we would all get a much higher hit probability

[bhoeyb]

I have 5 hits at the moment with 10525 banknotes, that's 1 hit for every 2105 notes .
I've had a hit with natureke. He/she entered 2 notes. That's 1 on 2

[Wouter1]

I have 5 hits at the moment

Are you top-scorer??

Shouldn't there be a list with top 10 "hit-getters"??

[Antti]

Shouldn't there be a list with top 10 "hit-getters"??

I don't think that would be a good idea, firstly because it would be about the same as the top 10 number of notes, and secondly that kind of competing would probably encourage to woombelism

[bhoeyb]

Are you top-scorer??

I have no idea

Shouldn't there be a list with top 10 "hit-getters"??

I don't think that would be a good idea, firstly because it would be about the same as the top 10 number of notes, and secondly that kind of competing would probably encourage to woombelism

I totaly agree with this. In the past, we had already too many problems with woombelism .

[Wouter1]

Antii and Bhoeyb I understand what you mean.

It's a shame isn't it.......... people always spoil it for others.